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COVID-19 and Changing International Political Order

At the time of pandemic the world order is changing in a very structural sense.

Today our world is in the state of chaos. This has been a matter of concern because earlier the world was not that much interconnected. But today when the information technology has revolutionised the way we see our world, the nations are so much interconnected, so that the chaos can have a multiplier effect.

The famous Henry Kissinger in his book “World Order” had said that “there has never been a truly world order.” According to him the four vision of world order are:

      I.        Westphalian State Centric World Order: It is based on the ideas of non-interference in domestic affairs. The principle of Nation Sovereignty will remains very sacred. India’s very famous the Panchsheel principle is based on this vision.

    II.        Islamic world order of Darul Islam:  In this contemporary world we have been witnessing the rise of Islamic threat. Various terrorist organisations such as ISIS, Al-Qaida, Jaish-e-Mohammed, Lashkar-e-Taiba, etc. are trying to establish Darul Islam mainly through Jihaad.

   III.        Chinese World Order Middle Kingdom Complex: China has a very ancient civilization, and today its dominance in world trade, its expansionary policies by converting weak nations into a modern day colony can be seen as Chinese World order vision.

  IV.        Liberal International Economic Order Pan Americana: For the last few decades the dominance of the USA in world order has been unchallenged. After the fall of the USSR the American hegemony has been clearly visible. Though today the world is moving towards multi-polar regime, but no one can deny the fact the role of USA in changing the world order after the Second World War.

What is Order?

It is related to a set of rules that can be formal or informal. These rules establish some sort of order. In case of violation of these rules by any strong nation many small countries may not be able to speak against or punish the strong nation for such violation.

The meaning of Political order as given in the Oxford Dictionary “a defining set of rules in international politics”.

You can also read our earlier analysis on changing world order here

No Coherent Visions of World Order

It is true that today there is no coherent vision of world order. The world order is in chaos. US vision of world order is different from the China’s. And the reason is that today, we don’t have any effective platform which has its legitimacy to discuss and evolve a vision. The credibility of multilateral institution including the United Nations Security Council has gone down.

Even during the cold war era the US and USSR despite contradictions of one being a democratic country and other being a Communist had a shared vision of “dependence on nuclear deterrence for promoting Security.”

The post-cold war era 1991 onwards can be described in two ways Globalisation/Pan Americana and US hegemony.

This can be seen in 1989 gulf War when the US has assumed the leadership and more than 30 countries had contributed their forces under the US leadership to fight against Saddam Hussain.

During this period the US was in the forefront in the formulation of rules, institutions, establishment and the crisis manager.

But during the COVID 19 crisis there has been no US leadership. The US is not even able to handle the crisis in the domestic arena. Large number of deaths, Lack of preparedness to deal with the pandemic can be understand as that the US hegemony has now been diluted.

Violations of International Political order

In the recent past many such instances were happened which can be seen as the violation of international political order. For example:

By US: During the Kosovo crisis 1999 and invasion in Iraq in 2003

By China: Since its inclusion in World Trade Organisation in 2001, it had not stick to its promise. China also not observing the mandate of International Court of Justice on the South China Sea.

By Russia: Annexation of Crimea in 2014.

The impact of these violations are the failure of multilateral institutions agreements.

Old (US hegemony)                   Chaos (COVID-19 Pandemic)               New (Multi-polar world)

Now the important question arises that, Whether we are living in the state of Pan-Sinica?

Since we are seeing that China is everywhere. It is the world’s factory, space, technology, robotics, world trade. It has presence in middle-east, south east, across Europe, Australia. Literally China is everywhere so the question is very relevant.

But the world is not accepting the leadership of china due to its expansionary motives and the world is moving towards multi-polar regime, where many regional powers have their role in shaping the world order.

 

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